New Listing to Pending Ratio
As a leading real estate brokerage, Team Price Real Estate provides unparalleled insights into the housing market through our weekly new listing-to-pending ratio updates. This critical metric, typically ranging from 0.49 to 1.32 in recent years, measures the balance between new listings and homes under contract, serving as a vital indicator of inventory trends and market dynamics. Whether you’re a homebuyer, seller, or investor, understanding this ratio—alongside mortgage rate fluctuations and open house activity—empowers you to navigate the real estate market with confidence. Our data-driven approach, rooted in over 25 years of market analysis, ensures you have the tools to make informed decisions in any market condition.
The new listing-to-pending ratio, calculated as (Active Under Contract + Pending, Taking Backups) / (New Listings + Back on Market), is a cornerstone of housing market analysis, updated every Monday and Friday by Team Price Real Estate. This ratio, with a 25-year average of 0.81, reveals whether inventory is growing or shrinking: a ratio below 1 indicates inventory is increasing as new listings and back-on-market properties outpace absorption, while a ratio above 1 (e.g., 1.32 in late 2024) signals inventory decline due to higher absorption.
Recent data shows ratios typically between 0.49 and 0.87 in 2025, reflecting a market where inventory often grows, challenging sellers but offering buyers more options. Mortgage rates, ranging from 6.62% to 7.04% in 2025, play a significant role, with lower rates (e.g., 6.63% in March) boosting pending sales and tightening inventory. Historically, the ratio peaked at 0.98 in 2015 during a robust market, while 2001 saw a low of 0.57 amid economic shifts. Additional metrics, like price reductions (71% to 94% of listings weekly) and back-on-market properties (13% to 19%), highlight seller adjustments in response to buyer hesitancy or financing hurdles.
FAQs
1. What is the new listing-to-pending ratio, and how is it calculated?
The new listing-to-pending ratio is a key real estate metric that compares the number of homes entering the market to those going under contract. It’s calculated as (Active Under Contract + Pending, Taking Backups) / (New Listings + Back on Market), updated every Monday and Friday. For example, a ratio of 0.49, as seen in June 2025, means fewer homes are going pending than are listed, increasing inventory. A 25-year average of 0.81 provides context: ratios below 1 suggest a buyer’s market with growing inventory, while ratios above 1 indicate a seller’s market with shrinking inventory. This metric helps buyers and sellers understand market competitiveness and inventory trends.
2. What does a new listing-to-pending ratio below 1 mean for the housing market?
A ratio below 1, such as 0.66 in 2025’s annual average, indicates that the number of new listings and back-on-market properties exceeds the number of homes going under contract, leading to rising inventory. This often signals a buyer’s market, where buyers have more choices and negotiating power due to increased supply. For sellers, it may mean longer listing times or the need for competitive pricing, especially when 71% to 94% of listings see price reductions, as observed in 2025. Team Price Real Estate helps clients adapt to these conditions, advising sellers on pricing strategies and buyers on seizing opportunities.
3. How do mortgage rates impact the new listing-to-pending ratio?
Mortgage rates directly influence buyer affordability, affecting the number of homes going pending and thus the new listing-to-pending ratio. In 2025, rates have ranged from 6.62% to 7.04%. Lower rates, like 6.63% in March, increase buyer activity, driving more pending sales and lowering the ratio (e.g., 0.63), as inventory tightens. Higher rates, such as 7.04% in January, reduce demand, raising the ratio (e.g., 0.68) as inventory grows. Historically, the 2005 ratio of 0.77 coincided with lower rates and a hot market. Team Price Real Estate monitors these trends to guide clients on optimal timing for buying or selling.
4. Why is open house activity important in understanding market trends?
Open house activity reflects buyer engagement and market vitality. In 2025, weekly open houses have ranged from 2,080 to 4,005, peaking in May, despite a -44.4% year-over-year decline in new listings. High open house numbers suggest strong buyer interest, often preceding spikes in pending sales, which can lower the new listing-to-pending ratio. For sellers, robust open house traffic (e.g., 3,631 in June 2025) signals opportunities to attract buyers, while buyers can explore more properties in a market with growing inventory. Team Price Real Estate uses this data to advise clients on marketing and touring strategies.
5. How has the new listing-to-pending ratio changed year-over-year, and what does it mean for 2025?
Year-over-year data shows the 2025 new listing-to-pending ratio averaging 0.66, down from 0.80 in 2024, indicating a shift toward increasing inventory. New listings dropped -44.4%, and pending sales fell -56.1% compared to 2024, driven by cautious buyer behavior amid mortgage rates of 6.62% to 7.04%. This trend, coupled with high price reductions (up to 94% of listings), suggests a slower market where inventory grows, favoring buyers. Compared to 2013’s 0.96 ratio during a seller’s market, 2025’s dynamics require strategic pricing for sellers and patience for buyers seeking deals. Team Price Real Estate’s expertise helps clients navigate these shifts effectively.
